I've seen numerous eroneous reports today: 'United has to win the last three games to make the playoffs.' 'United is out with a NYRB win Saturday.'
Here's some insight into where United stands going into our last three games. Many permutations of results exist and it is almost impossible to play out each scenario. We know the more points the better, but here is a deeper and more accurate look at what needs to happen by next weekend to see the Black-and-Red in the playoffs. Bear with me now.
At 9-11-11 (38 points) D.C. United remains in the playoff race, but needs results next week to secure passage to the post-season for the first time since 2007. The club is currently five points shy of playoff positioning, but owns a game in hand over each of the Eastern Conference clubs ahead in the standings. United finishes the season with three consecutive home games (October 15, 19 and 22) that will prove the difference in making the post-season and playoff positioning.
Only the top seed in the Eastern Conference is mathematically impossible to obtain at this point. Though United can still reach 47 points (with three wins) and equal Philadelphia, should they lose their last two games, the Union would own a head-to-head tie-breaker (SKC would also have to draw with NY in this scenario and Columbus would have to earn two or fewer points from their last two games, while Houston could earn no more than three meaning the end result would actually have to be a three-way tie between Philly, NY and DC). This situation would see the three teams at 47 points emerge (in order) Philadelphia, New York, DC for the three Eastern Conference automatic spots. It is also not possible that United finish as the top wild card.
Three wins, though, guarantees playoff entry, as United would make the playoffs if any of the following clubs fail to equal 47 points: SKC (currently on 45 with two games left), Columbus (44 points with two games left), Colorado (45 points with two games left), NY (43 points with two games left) or Houston (43 points with two games left). By winning all three games, it would be assured at that point that either Sporting Kansas City or New York would not be able to hit the 47-point mark by virtue of their match this weekend (Thanks Tony Limarzi and @Ted_CSRN for the added info). Should United win two and draw one of the last three games - with one of the wins coming against Portland, United would qualify if any of the following clubs fail to equal 45 points: Columbus (44 points with two games left), NY (43 points with two games left) or Houston (43 points with two games left). Should United and Portland draw and the Black-and-Red win the other two matches, United would qualify if two of the following clubs fail to equal 45 points: Columbus (44 points with two games left), NY (43 points with two games left), Houston (43 points with two games left) or Portland (40 points with three games left).
A loss in any of the final three games doesn't eliminate United, as long as the other two results are wins. If United's loss is to either Chicago or SKC, United would qualify as a wild card if any of the following clubs fail to equal 44 points: NY (43 points with two games left) or Houston (43 points with two games left). If United's loss is to Portland, United would qualify as a wild card if any of the following clubs fail to equal 44 points: NY (43 points with two games left), Houston (43 points with two games left) or Portland (40 points with three games left).
A win and two ties for United in the last three games could see the club advancing to playoffs via a tie-break win against NY and Portland (United would have to beat Portland next Wednesday with Portland losing to Houston Friday and winning at RSL for this to occur). Otherwise, at 43 points, United would lose out on a tie-breaker with NY and Houston or could finish in a four-way tie at 43 points, but would not qualify for the playoffs.
Additional scenarios may be possible in which United advances via a tie-breaker, but we'll wait to sort those after this weekend's results. The scenarios above assure a playoff spot for the Black-and-Red.
The message to fans is simple: 'We need your support.' Come out to RFK Stadium Saturday night. Let's start with three points.
Vamos United!
